In civil cases based on circumstantial evidence, the plaintiff must prove their case on a balance of probabilities by establishing facts from which the most natural, plausible and acceptable inference supports their case - mere speculation is insufficient. An inference must be consistent with all proved facts and be tested against those facts. Statistical prevalence of a condition in a population does not, without more, establish on a balance of probabilities that a specific individual within that population has that condition - where prevalence is 30%, it remains more probable than not that a random individual does not have the condition. Drawing an inference from an inference (using a conclusion about one fact to support an inference about another fact) amounts to improper circular reasoning. An appellate court may interfere with a trial court's credibility findings where those findings are plainly wrong or affected by misdirection, particularly where objective documentary evidence contradicts the findings. In delictual claims, factual causation must be established as an essential element - failure to prove that the source of harm (here, the deceased) possessed the harmful agent (HIV) is fatal to the claim.