In markets dominated by innovation competition, merger analysis must account for long-term dynamic efficiency improvements, not merely immediate static price effects. The appropriate counterfactual must be based on credible evidence, not speculation. Where a target firm is in inevitable decline due to lack of access to essential technology, and the only realistic alternative to preserve its valuable assets (here, local germplasm) is merger with a party possessing complementary technology and germplasm, competition authorities cannot prohibit the merger based on unsubstantiated speculation that the target could successfully merge with other parties lacking such complementarity. Complementarity of germplasm and technology is a critical factor in assessing the viability of alternative mergers in technology-driven seed breeding markets. Dynamic efficiencies from innovation that are verified (even if not precisely quantified) and that will materialize within a reasonable timeframe can offset static price increases. In innovation-driven markets, the preservation of economic incentives to innovate is a key competition concern. Where innovation competition is fierce between remaining market participants, coordinated effects are unlikely. The reduction from three to two competitors does not automatically substantially lessen competition where one of the three competitors would inevitably exit the market absent the merger.